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Topic:4Saving and Investment Definition and Kinds of Investment; Autonomous and Induced etc. Determinants of investment. Present Value Criteria for Investment. Investment Demand and Output Growth. Tobin’s Q-Theory. Lags in Investment Demand. Derivation of IS-curve, Shape of IS-curve. Volatility of Investment. Investment Demand and Fiscal Policy. Shifts in Investment Demand Curve and output determination. Topic:5 Money Market: The Demand and Supply of Money Money Demand and its Determinants, Regressive Expectation Model. Portfolio Balance Approach, Empirical Estimation of Income and Interest Elasticities.Supply of Money, Determinants of Money Supply. Measurement of Money Supply and its implications, Instruments of Monetary Policy. Interest Sensitivity of Money Supply. Quantity Theory of Money and its Critical Review. Fischer effect, Money, Prices and Inflation. Derivation of LM Curve and its Slope. LM Curve and Money Market Equilibrium. Interaction of IS-LM and Equilibrium. Top ic:6. Aggregate Demand, Supply and Stabilization Policy Keynesian Models: Liquidity Trap. Effectiveness of Policy and Price Rigidity. Slope of Aggregate Supply and Demand Curves. Liquidity Trap. Grand Aggregate Demand Curve.Interaction of IS-LM and Determination of output: Short-run and Long-run analysis: Aggregate Demand and Supply and their Slopes. Slope of IS-LM in Short-run and Long-run. Vertical / Horizontal Shapes of these Curves. Classical and Keynesian Models. Shocks to Aggregate Demand and Supply and Stabilization Policy. Supply Side Economics. Stagflation and Stabilization Policies, Shocks to IS-LM and its Outcomes and Policy Implications. Short-run – Long-run Philip Curves. Long-run and Vertical Aggregate Supply Curve. Ineffectiveness of Keynesian Policies, Technical Change and Shift in Vertical Aggregate Supply Curve.Part B: Topic:7. Open Economy and Macroeconomic Stabilization Exchange Rates and their Determinants: Mundell – Fleming Model (MFM): Small open Economy with perfect Capital Mobility. IS-LM: Goods and Money Market. Small Open Economy, Floating Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy. Fixed Exchange Rate and Fiscal Policy. Flexible and Managed Exchange Rates. Monetary Policy, Devaluation and Recovery from great depression. Trade Policy: Mundell-Fleming Model (MFM) with changing Price Level. MFM and large open Economy. Depreciation and its impacts. Income Absorption Approach and exchange Adjustment and Balance of Payment.Topic:8. Labor Market, Price Expectation and Unemployment Demand and Supply of Labour, Equilibrium in the Labour Market. The Sticky Wage Model, Insider-Outsider Models. The Workers – Misperception Model, The Imperfect – Information Model, The Sticky Price Model. Rational Expectation (RE), Adaptive Expectations, RE and Painless Disflation, Hysteresis and challenge to Natural rate Hypothesis. Topic:9. Macroeconomic Policy Debate Policy Actions: Active or Passive, Ignorance, Expectations and the Lucas Crit ique. Conduct of Policy: Rule vs. Discretion, Distrust of Policy makers and Political Process.Macroeconomics Policy: Rules for Fiscal Policy, making Policy in uncertain World. Seignorage and Inflation: What can Policy Accomplish? Monetarists vs. Activists debate. Phillips Curve: Short run and Long run analysis. The expectation augmented Phillips Curve. Money Inclusion and output. Short Run and Long Run Adjustment. Perfect Foresight and Adjustment. Topic:10. Government Debt and Budget Deficit The size of Government Debt, Measurement Problem: Inflation, Capital Assets, Business Cycle etc. Ricardian view of Debt: Ricardian Equivalence, Consumers and Future Taxes.Tax shooting, Delayed Stabilization, Ricardo and Ricardian Equivalence and Debate. Model of Debt Crises. Topic:11. Economic Fluctuation and Its Sources The Theory of Real Business Cycles: Interpretation: Labor Market, Technology Shocks. Household Behaviour, the persistence of output Fluctuations. Limitations of the Model. The C hallenges:What we know and what we don’t know? Long-run and Country’s Capacity to Produce. Short-run and influence of Aggregate Demand. Random Walk Model. What Determines Inflation Rate, Unemployment Rate and Output Growth? Can we revise Natural Rate of Output?Should we stabilize the Economy? The cost of Inflation? The problem of Budget Deficit? Topic:12. Long-Term Growth and Full Employment †¢ Basic Neo-Classical Growth Model and Equilibrium Capital / Output Ratio, Wage – Profit Relative Shares. †¢ Neo-Classical Model with Technical Progress: ? Capital Embodied Technical Progress. ? Neutral Disembodied Technical Progress. ? Labor-Augmenting Disembodied Technical Progress. †¢ Kaldor Saving Function and Neoclassical Production Function. †¢ Golden Rule and Optimal Growth Models. †¢ New Growth Theory / Endogenous Growth. Recommended Books: 1.Branson, William H. , (1979), Macroeconomic Theory and Policy, Harper and Row Publishers, New York / London. 2. Branson, William H. , and Litvack James M. , Macroeconomics*, (Latest Edition), Princeton University. 3. Glahe, Fred R. , (Latest Edition), Macroeconomics, Theory and Policy, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Inc. 5. Mankiw, Gregory N. , (2000) Macroeconomics*, Worth Publishers, New York. 6. Peel D. and Minfow P. , (2002). Advance Macroeconomics, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, U. K. 7. Romer, David, (2001). Advanced Macroeconomics*, McGraw Hills, New York / London. 8. Sargent, Thomas J. (1988) Rational Expectations and Inflation*, Harper and Raw Publishers, New York / London. 9. Rosalind Leveic and Alexander Reborens, Macro-economics: An Introduction to Keynesian Neo-Classical Controversies; Macmillan (Latest edition). 10. Denison, Edward F. 1985. Trends in American Economic Growth, 1929-1982. Washington: The Brookings Institution. *Strongly Recommended Additional Reading Material / Research Papers: 1. Ball, Laurence, Mankiw, N. Gregory, and Romer, David. 1988. â€Å"The New Keynesi an Economics and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff. † Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. , 1-65, Reprinted in Mankiw and Romer (1991). 2. Barro, Robert J. 1976. â€Å"Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy. † Journal of Monetary Economics 2 (January): 1-32. 3. Barro, Robert J. 1989. â€Å"Interest-Rate Targeting. † Journal of Monetary Economics 23 (January): 3-30. 4. Barro, Robert, J. , and Gordon, David B. 1983b. â€Å"Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy. † Journal of Monetary Economics 12 (July): 101-121. Reprinted in Persson and Tabellini (1994). 5. Bernheim, B. Douglas. 1987, â€Å"Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2: 263-304. 6. Blanchard, Olivier J. 1984. â€Å"The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation. † American Economic Review 74 (May): 211-215. 7. Fischer, Stanley. 1993. â€Å"The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. † Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (December): 485-512. 8. Friedman, Milton, 1968. â€Å"The Role of Monetary Policy†. American Economic Review 58 (March): 1-17. 9. Genberg, Hans. 1978. â€Å"Purchasing Power Parity under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. † Journal of International Economics 8 (May): 247-276. 10. Long, John B. , and Plosser, Charles I. 983. â€Å"Real Business Cycles. † Journal of Political Economy 91 (February): 39-69. 11. Mankiv, G. , N. (1990), A quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXVIII, 1645-60. 12. Romer, Christina D. 1999. â€Å"Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations. † Journal of Economic Perspectives 13 (spring): 23-44. 13. Romer, Paul M. 1990. â€Å"Endogenous Technological Change. † Journal of Political Economy 1998 (October, Part 2): S71-S102. Paper 3. MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS Topic 1:The Nature of Mathematical Economics Ingredients of mathematical models.Derivations: Equ ation of a straight line and its forms: Two point, intercept, point slope and slop intercept. Types of functions: constant, polynomial, rational, non-algebraic. Relationships and functions. Indices & their rules. Functions of more than two independent variables. Logarithms & the rules of logarithms. Topic 2:Equilibrium Analysis in Economics A linear partial equilibrium market model. The effect of an excise tax in a competitive market. Non linear market model. General Market Equilibrium. Equilibrium in a linear National Income Model. Topic 3:Linear Models and Matrix AlgebraTheory of matrix multiplication. Laws of matrix operations. Types of matrices: Square, identity, null, idempotent, diagonal, transpose and their properties. Conditions for non singularity of a matrix. Minors and cofactors. Determinant & its properties. Solution of linear equations through Gaussian method, Cramer’s rule and Inverse of a matrix method. Properties of inverse of a matrix. Use of matrix approach in market & national income models. Topic 4:Input-Output Analysis Input-output model, its structure and its derivation. The use of input output model in Economics. Topic 5:DifferentiationRules of differentiation. Differentiation of a function of one variable. Sum-difference, product, quotient, chain, power, inverse, logarithmic & exponential functions Combinations of rules. Higher order derivatives. Economic applications of derivative. Concept of maxima & minima, elasticity and point of inflection. Profit & revenue maximization under perfect competition, under monopoly. Maximizing excise tax revenue in monopolistic competitive market, Minimization of cost etc. Topic 6:Partial & Total Differentiation Partial differentiation & its rules. Higher order & cross partial derivatives (young’s theorem).Total differential & total derivatives. Implicit functions rule of differentiation. Optimizing cubic functions & their economic application. Topic 7:Economic Applications of Partial & T otal Differentiation Comparative static analysis: a linear Partial equilibrium market model, a linear National Income model. Partial elasticities. Production functions Analysis. Maximization & Minimization of unconstrained functions & their economic applications: Profit maximization by a multi-product firm under perfect Competition & monopoly, Price discrimination, Multi-plant monopoly, input decisions etc.Topic 8:Optimization: Constrained & Extrema Free and constrained optimization, extrema of a function of two variables: graphical analysis, Lagrange method. Utility maximization & Cost minimization. Homogenous Production function, Cobb Douglas Production function. Jaccobian determinants. CES Production Function. Translof Function. Topic 9:Linear Programming Ingredients of linear Programming. Graphical approach, simplex method, economic application of linear programming. Concept of primal & dual. Duality theorems. Solving of Primal via dual.Economic interpretation of a dual. Recomme nded Books: 1. Chiang, A. C. , Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics, McGraw Hills, (Latest Edition). 2. Baumol W. J. , Economic Dynamics, Macmillan, (Latest edition). 3. Budnick, Frank, Applied Mathematics for Business, Economics and Social Sciences. 4. Dowling E. T. , Mathematics for economists, Schum Series (latest edition). 5. Weber E. Jean, Mathematical Analysis, Business and Economic Applications (Latest Edition) Harper and Row Publishers, New York. Paper 4. STATISTICS FOR ECONOMISTS Topic 1:IntroductionDescriptive and inferential statistics; Variable and constant, population and sample, parameter and statistic; The four basic activities in statistics: Designing a plan for data collection, Exploring the data, Estimating an unknown quantity, Hypothesis testing; Type of measurement scales: Nominal, Ordinal, Interval and Ratio; Types of data: Univariate, Bivariate and Multivariate data, Primary and secondary data, Quantitative data and qualitative data, Time series, Cross -sectional and pooled data; Significant digits and rounding off numbers; Errors: Biased and unbiased.Topic 2:Presentation of Data and Measure of Central Tendency Introduction; Classification; Tabulating numerical data: The frequency distribution, The cumulative frequency distribution, The relative frequency distribution, The percentage frequency distribution; Graphic and diagrammatic representation: Bar chart, Pie chart, Histograms, Frequency curves and Histo-grams; Histograms by Hand: Stem-and-leaf.Measure of central tendency; Introduction; Types of Averages: Mean: Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Harmonic mean, Trimmed mean and Winsorized mean; Quintiles: Median, Quartiles, Deciles, Percentiles; The mode; Box plot and detailed box plot; Empirical relation between Mean, Median and Mode; The cumulative distribution function: Finding the percentile ranking for a given number, Finding the percentile for a given percentage; Summary measures and type of data. Topic 3:Measures of Dispers ion, Skewness and KurtosisAbsolute and relative measure of dispersion; Different measures of dispersion: The Range, Quartile deviation, Mean deviation, Variance and standard deviation: Definition and interpretation of variance and standard deviation, Computation of variance and standard deviation, Step deviation method or coding method, Coefficient of variation, Standardized variable, Properties of standard deviation and variance; Skewness: Karl Pearson’s coefficient of skewness, Bowley’s coefficient of skewness; Kurtosis. Topic 4:Probability and Probability DistributionA survey of probability concepts: Classical probability, Empirical concept, Subjective probability; Some rules of probability: Rules of addition, Rules of multiplication; Tree diagrams; Conditional Probability, Bayes Theorem; Counting rules: The multiplication formula, The permutation formula, The combination formula. Discrete probability distribution, Random variables, Discrete random variable, Continu ous random variable; The mean, variance and standard deviation of a probability distribution; Binomial probability distribution, and its computation.Cumulative probability distributions, Properties of Binomial probability distribution. The normal probability distributions: Properties of normal distribution, Applications of the standard normal distribution, Areas under the normal curve, Finding areas under the normal curve; The normal approximation to the binomial; Continuity correction factor. Topic 5:Survey Sampling and Sampling DistributionsSampling the population, Advantages of sampling, Representative samples, Sample design and sample survey, Sampling frame, Probability and non-probability sampling, Sampling with and without replacement, Sampling and non-sampling error, sampling bias; Probability sampling and non-probability sampling methods; Sampling distribution of the mean; The central limit theorem; Sampling distribution of differences between means; Sampling distribution of sample proportion; Sampling distribution of differences between proportions.Topic 6:Estimation and Confidence Intervals Point estimates and confidence intervals; Estimation by confidence interval: Confidence interval estimate of a population mean (Known Variance), Confidence interval estimate of a population mean (Unknown Variance) Confidence interval for differences of means, Confidence interval for differences of means; Confidence interval for population proportion, Confidence interval for differences between proportions; One sided confidence interval; Sample size for estimating population mean.Topic 7:Hypothesis Testing One sample test of hypothesis; One Sample; One tail and two tails tests of significance; Testing for a population mean with a known population standard deviation: Two-tailed test, one-tailed test; P-Value in hypothesis testing; Testing for a population mean: Large sample, Population standard deviation unknown; Testing hypotheses about population proportion when s ample size is large; Type II error. Testing of two Sample Hypothesis: Population means, Population proportions; comparing populations with small samples.Topic 8:Chi Square Applications Introduction; Goodness-of-fit test: Equal expected frequencies; Goodness-of-fit test: Unequal expected frequencies; Limitations of Chi  square; Using the goodness-of-fit test to test for normality; Contingency Table Analysis. Topic 9:Analysis of Variance Introduction, The F distribution; Comparing two population variances; ANOVA assumptions; ANOVA test; Inferences about pairs of treatment means; Two-way analysis of variance. Topic 10:Simple Linear Regression and Correlation AnalysisScatter diagram; Standard methods for obtaining regression line: (i) Inspection, (ii) Semi average, (iii) Least squares principle; Assumptions underlying linear regression; Measures of variation: Standard error of the estimate, Coefficient of determination; Prediction in Regression Analysis; Interpolation verses extrapola tion; Correlation analysis; Scatter diagram; The coefficient of correlation: Properties/characteristic of coefficient of correlation, Correlation and causation; The relationship among the correlation coefficient, the coefficient of determination and the standard error of estimate; Inference about the slope and correlation coefficient; t-test for the slope, F- test for the slope, t-test for correlation coefficient; Estimation of the mean values and predication of individual values; Confidence interval and predication interval estimate; Rank correlation. Topic 11:Multiple Linear Regression and Correlation AnalysisMultiple linear regression model, Interpretation of partial regression coefficients; Estimation of multiple linear regression model with two explanatory variables by using Least squares principle, Matrix approach, Deviation form; Pitfalls and problems in multiple regression: Multicollinearity, Variable selection, Model misspecification; Multiple standard error of estimate; Co efficient of multiple determination (adjusted and unadjusted); Evaluating the regression equation: Using a scatter diagram, Correlation matrix, Global test, Individual variable significance test, Qualitative independent variables; Multiple regressions in terms of linear correlation coefficients; Multiple correlation and partial correlation; Nonlinear regression models; Dealing with nonlinear relationship and unequal variability. Topic 12:Applied Statistics Index Numbers, Un-weighted index numbers; Simple aggregative index; Weighted indexes; Laspeyre’s price index, Paaseche’s price index, Marshal- Edgeworth price index; Fisher’s ideal index; Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), CPI versus GDP Deflator; Issues in constructing and using index numbers; Application of index numbers to business and economics.An overview of time series analysis; Component Factors of the classical multiplication time series model and their estimation: Secular trend; C yclical variation, Seasonal variation, Irregular variation; Smoothing the annual time series and using it in forecasting: Moving averages, Weighted moving averages, Exponential smoothing; Using trend and seasonal component in forecasting; Time series and forecasting; The multiplicative model, Calculating the seasonal indexes, De-seasonalization the time series, Using deseasonalized time series to identify trend, Seasonal adjustments, Model based on monthly data, Cyclical component; Modeling cyclic behavior using box-Jenkins ARIMA processes; Using regression analysis in forecasting; Qualitative approach to forecasting: Delphi method, Expert judgment, Scenario writing, Intuitive approaches; Choosing an appropriate forecasting model; Some observations on time series analysis. Recommended Text books: 1. Lind, Douglas A. , Marshal, William G. and Mason, Robert D. , Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics (11th edition). Boston: McGraw Hill, 2003. 2.Chaudhry, Sher Mohammad and Ka mal, Shahid, Introduction to Statistical Theory (7th edition). Lahore: Ilmi Kitab Khana, 2002. 3. Siegel, Andrew F. , Practical Business Statistics (5th edition). Boston: McGraw Hill, 2003. 4. Newbold, Paul, Carlson, William L. and Thorne, Betty M, Statistics for Business and Economics (5th edition). New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 2002. 5. Keller, Gerald and Warrack, Brian, Statistics for Management and Economics (5th edition). Boston: Duxbury Thomson Learning, 2000. Additional Readings: 1. Berenson, Mark L. , Levine, David M. and Krehbiel, Timothy C. , Basic Business Statistics: Concepts and Applications (9th edition). New Jersay: Prentice Hall, 2004. 2. Barron, Michael M. Statistics for Economics Accounting and Business Studies (Latest Edition), New York, Prentice Hall. 3. Carlson, William L. and Thorne, Betty, Applied Statistical Methods for Business Economics and Social Sciences (Latest edition). New Jersey: Prentice Hall. 4. Moore, David S. , The Basic Practice of Statistics (2nd e dition). New York: Freeman,2000. Paper 5. ISLAMIC ECONOMICS Note: The instructor concerned may assign additional and latest literature on the subject matter. The references provided at the end of the course are just helping literature. Students must consult additional literature on each topic. Topic 1:Introduction: Islamic Economics i) Nature, and Importance of Islamic Economics.Islamic Economics Versus Economics of Secular Economy and Mixed Economic System. ii) Brief Introduction of Basic Values of Islam; Taqva, Halal and Haram, Justice, Benevolence, Equality, Brotherhood and Cooperation as Determinants of Economic Behaviour and Policies. Topic 2:Major Economic Thoughts: Contribution of Scholars Contribution of some Earlier Muslim Scholars in the Development of Islamic Economics (Imam Abu Yousuf, Imam Abu Ubaid Al Qasim,, Ibn-e-Khaldoon, Imam Ibn-e-Taimiah, Shah Waliullah Dehlvi, Baqar-al-Sadar). Topic 3:Islamic Economic System Silent features of Islamic Economic System; objectives , Economic Freedom, Property and Ownership Rights. The Concept of Equality and Efficiency.The Relative Importance of Capital and Labour. Priority to Basic Needs. Concepts of Ownerships and Implication. Welfare and income Distribution. Comparison of Islamic Economic System with Capitalism and Socialism, with respect to above cited principles / values of Islam. Topic 4:Microeconomics in Islamic Framework The Consumer Behaviour in Islam. Utility, Moderation, optional Consumption Behaviour. Organization of Production and Behavioural Theories of Firms. Objectives and Behaviour of Firm in Islamic Economy. Business Ethics in Production and Marketing. Hoarding and Gains. Market Structure – Monopoly and Competition, Resource Allocation in Islamic Environment and Cartels.Concepts of Fair Trade. Stockists / Wholesales, determination of Prices and Rate of Normal Profit / Meeting of Losses. Price Mechanism and State Role in Regulation of Markets. Topic 5:The Modes of Financing In Islam Mo darba and Musharka Types of Bai. (Bai-Salam, Bai Muajjal, Morabaha. ) Saving and Investment in Islam. Investment of Savings for Gains. Topic 6:Distribution in Islamic Economy Islamic Stress on Circulating of Wealth. Steps against Concentration of Wealth. Social Justice in Islam. Rights of Labour, Distributive Justice Use of Land and Other Natural Resources and their Rewards. Role of State in Distribution of Wealth.Topic 7:Some Basic Macroeconomic Concepts Consumption, saving and Investment Functions in Islamic Environment. Determents of Islamic Consumption Function, Concept to Help others, Welfare and Religious believes. Zakat and Usher. Topic 8:Demand and Supply of Money and Banking Gold Money, Paper Money and Credit Money. Western Justification of interest. Islamic Concept of Riba, its Implications and Alternatives. Functions of Commercial Banks in Islamic Framework. Central Banking and Monetary Policy in Islamic Framework. Central Banking and Monetary Policy in Islam. Inflation V s. Design of Capital Market. Monetary Policy in an Islamic Framework. Topic 9:Zakat, Social Justice and StateMeaning of Zakat, Nisab, Introductory Hints about items of Zakat. Distributive Role of Zakat and Social Justice. Zakat as a tool in Fiscal Policy. Economic Role of Islamic State. Welfare consumption and limits. Revenue and Expenditure Items in Modern Islamic States. Beneficiaries of Zakat. The Tax Policy of Islam. Nature and Scope of Fiscal Policy in Islamic State (Taxation Policy). Expenditure Principles. Burden of Taxes. Topic 10:Economic Planning and Development Concepts and Objectives of Economic Development in Islam. Resources for Development. Nature of Economic Planning in Islam. Topic 11:The Islamisation Process In Pakistan The Islamisation of Banks. Implementation of Zakat / Usher in Pakistan.A brief Survey of Changes in Economic Structure and Conditions Since the Holy Prophet (regarding Transport / communication, Business Forms, Production of Goods, Money and Banking ). Topic 12:New Emerging Issues and Challenges Current Situation and Proposed Changes. Islamic View of International Economic Institutions and Modes of International Cooperation. Islamic View of Globalization. Quality Identification of Goods, Merits and Trade. Fair Prices Vs. Market Price etc. Books Recommended: Basic Texts: 1. Islamic Economics: Theory and Practice, A Comparatice Study, M. A. Mannan, Cambridge, Hodder and Stoughton, 1986 (or latest ed. ) 2. Islamic Economics: Dar A. H & M.. Akram Ilmi Kitab Khana, Lahore (latest ed. 3. Macro Consumption Function in an Islamic Economic Framework, M. Fahim Khan, International Centre for Research In Islamic Economics, King Abdual Aziz Univ, KSA. References: 1. Ahmad, Khurshid, (latest edition), Fiscal Policy and Revenue Allocation in Islam, International Islamic University, Islamabad. 2. Anf A. Q. Mannan M. A. (1995), Developing a System of Financial Instruments IRTI, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah. 3. Badawi, Imam Abu Abaid Al-Qasi m Muhammad A. Zaki, Kitab ul Amwal: , Zakat and Social Justice, Islamic Council of Europe, London, 1979. 4. Chapra T M. , The Economic System of Islam, University of Karachi, 1991. 5.Chapra, Umer, Monetary Policy in an Islamic Economy, in Money and Banking in Islam, Institute of Policy Studies, Islamabad. 6. Ghazanfar S. M. , (2003), Medieval Islamic Economic Thoughts, Routledge Publishers. 7. Khan M. Fahim, (1995), Human Resource Mobilization Through the Profit, Loss Sharing Based Financial System, IRTI, Islamic Development Bank Jeddah. 8. Khan, Tariq ullah, (1996), Practice and Performance of Mudarba, A case study of Pakistan, IRTI, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah. 9. Khurshid, Ahmad, Elimination of Riba: Institute of Policy Studies, Islamabad. 10. Mahdi, M. Ahmad, (1995), Islamic Banking Modes for House Building Finance, IRTI, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah. 11. Mannan M.A, (1996), Financing Development in Islam, IRTI, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah. 12. Naqvi Syed Nawab Hyd er Ethics and Economics: . Leicester, The Islamic Foundation. 1981. 13. Nomani, Farhad & Rehnuma. , Ali, Islamic Economic Systems: – Zed Books Ltd. , London, 1994. 14. Nuti, D. Haris, (1995), The Economics of Participation, IRTI, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah. 15. Siddiqui, M. N. , Muslim Economic Thinking, Leicester, The Islamic Foundation. 1985. 16. Tago, Usman, Justice: Introduction to Islamic Finance, (2000), Idara-tul- ma’arif edition. 17. Yusaf , Imam Abu, Kita bur Kharaj, Lahore, Islamic Book Centre, 1979. Paper 6. MAJOR ISSUES IN PAKISTAN ECONOMY Topic 1:Overview of Pakistan EconomyDevelopment Experience, Approaches, Policies and Outcomes. Identification of Issues: The era of 1950’s, 1960’s, 1970’s, 1980’s 1990’s and 2000’s. Structural Change and Sources of Growth. Emergence of Economic Issues, Human Resource Development, Unemployment, Poverty, Income Distribution, Debt, Deficit etc. Growth with limited development i n Pakistan. Topic 2:Development Planning and Resource Mobilization Agricultural Development Policies and Priorities, Major Targets of Develop Plans and Emerging Issues; Neglects and Successes: Mobilization of Domestic Resources; Shortages, Deficits and Role of Foreign Aid. Agricultural Vs. Industrial Development Debate. Agricultural Adequacy.Topic 3:Agriculture and Industrial Development: Emerging Issues Pattern of Agricultural and Industrial Development, Land Reforms and Its Impacts, the Role of Green Revolution and its Impacts: Present Status. Agricultural Price Policy and Income Tax. Sectoral Terms of Trade. Industrial Development Policies and Strategies. Development of Large and Small Industries. Value Added: Manufacturing Goods Vs. Primary Goods Production. Agriculture Vs. Industry: Development Debate. Topic 4:Sectoral Development, Employment Pattern and Unemployment Sectoral Priorities and Development Issues. Human Resource Development and Emerging Issues: Population Growth, L abor Force Participation Rate and Employment Pattern, Unemployment and Underemployment, Forecasting Manpower Needs and Employment. Strategies to combat unemployment.Criteria to Measure Unemployment / Underemployment: Time Criterion, Productivity Criterion and New Index of Unemployment: Application to Pakistan and Empirical Evidences. Good Goverence, Social Action Plan and its Impact. Role of Institution in Development. Social Sectors development Vs. High Retun Sectors: Growth trade off. Topic 5:International Debt and Dependency Concepts of Foreign Aid and Debt. Borrowing Vs. Domestic Reserve Mobilization (failure). Size of Foreign Debt, Debt Saving and its Impacts. Strategies to combat with High Debt: Saving Policy, Foreign Trade Promotion, Cutting non-development Expenditures, Rescheduling and its Impacts.Debt Management in Pakistan and Its Impacts. Debt Modeling and Future Implications. Topic 6:Poverty and Income Distribution Pattern of Income Distribution: Rural and Urban. Defini tions and Approaches to Measure Poverty: Income Approach, Expenditure Approach, Basic Needs Approach, Poverty of Participatory Index (POPI). How to Combat Poverty; Growth Strategy, Basic Needs, Labor Intensive Investment: Education / Training etc. and Social Action Plan (SAP) , its Role and Critical Review, Evasion of Policies / Strategies to Combat Poverty and Improving Income Distribution: Critical Evaluation. Neglect of Human Resource Development. Child Labor. Factors Productivity Issues.Topic 7:Inflation, Foreign Trade Deficit and Emerging Issues Sources of Inflation in Pakistan. Policies to Combat Inflation and their Impacts. Trade Performance, Instability and its Impacts. Policies to Combat Deficit and Trade Instability. WTO and Its Impacts. Reforms and Further Needs. Expected Impacts of WTO and Challenges. Terms of Trade Issues, Market Access and Health Related Rates. Recommended Books: 1. Aslam M. , Perspective on Development Planning In Pakistan, Allied Book Centre, Lahore, 2001-2002. 2. Chaudhary M. Aslam and Ahmad Eatzaz: Globalization, WTO and Trade Liberalization in Pakistan, FerozSons, Lahore (2004). 3.Chaudhary M. Aslam, Human Resource Development and Management in Pakistan, Ferozsons, Lahore (1989). 4. Ishrat Hussain, Pakistan: The Economy at the Gross Roads – Past Policies and Present Imperatives, Oxford Univ. Press, Karachi, 1988. 5. Khan, Shahrukh R. , 50 Years of Pakistan’s Economy – Traditional Topics and Contemporary Concerns. Oxford Univ. Press, Karachi (2000). 6. Mahbool-ul-Haq Centre for Human Development (MHCHD), Poverty Profile of Pakistan, (1989) Oxford University Press. 7. ————– Human Development In South Asia, Annual Report. 8. Saeed, Khawaja Amjad, The Economy of Pakistan, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2004. 9.Zaidi, Akbar, (1999), Issues in Pakistan Economy, Oxford Univ. , Press, Karachi. 10. World Development Reports, World Bank. (Note:Teacher(s) must assign latest res earch papers pertaining to each topic) M. A. Part II Paper 1. INTERNATIONAL TRADE THEORY AND FINANCE A)International Trade Theory Topic1. Importance and Bases of Trade Why Study International Economics? The Changing World and Interdependence: Basis of Trade, Gains from Trade. Absolute Advantage, Comparative Advantage, Overview of Comparative Advantage and Pattern of Trade. Offer Curves and Free Trade Equilibrium. Disagreements on Free Trade: Overview of Emergency of International Trade Issues.The Elasticity of Exports Demand and Balance of Payment. Substitution and Income Effects, Impacts of Rise in Exports Demand. Topic 2. Growth and Trade International Trade and Shift in Production Function, Immerizing Growth, Output Growth and Terms of Trade (T. O. T) / Deterioration: Uniform Growth at given T. O. T. The Transfer Problem: Marshall Plan and Transfers, Transfer of Resources: Neutral Case. Topic 3. Technology and Factor Endowment Ricardian Trade Model, World Production and Gains. Co mparative Cost and Trade Pattern. National and World Gains from Trade. International Wage differentials and Productivity. Technical Progress and International Gains.WTO and Gains from Technical Progress: Impacts on Prices. Equilibrium Production and Consumption: Non-traded and Tradeables, Costs, Marginal Physical Product and Production Possibilities. Production Possibilities with Diminishing Returns, Increasing Opportunity Cost. Free Trade and Income Distribution, Relative Demand, Supply and Pattern of Trade. Dutch Disease and its application. Topic 4. Factor Endowment and Heckscher – Ohlin Theory Output and Factors Rewards in 2*2 Model. Factor Intensity Comparison. Heckscher- Ohlin (H. O) Model, The Role of Demand, Factor’s Prices and Commodity Prices, Factor Price Equalization, and Factor Intensity Reversal.Newly Industrializing Countries (NIC’s) and Footloose Production Process. NIC’s and H. O Theorem. The Product Cycle, Critical Analysis of Traditiona l Trade Theories. Rypecksy Theorem and its critical review. Topic 5. Markets, Cartels and International Trade Monopoly and Import Competition, Export Opportunities. Product Differentiation and Monopolistic Competition. Dumping / Discrimination and WTO, Competitiveness and Market Share, Gains from Migration. WTO and Factor’s Movements and the Commodity Movement. Multinationals Firms and Foreign Direct Investment, Transfer of Capital, Technology, Skill and other Gains, Transfer of Resources and Transfer Problem. Topic 6. Tariff, Quota and Trade PoliciesTariff and Small Country: Effects of Tariff, Price and Demand for Imports, Welfare impacts. Impacts of Tariff on Government Revenue, T. O. T Production and Welfare. Impact of Tariff on Domestic and World Welfare. The Optimal Tariff. Tariff and Distribution of Income. Brief Introduction of Tariff and WTO Laws, Tariff and Second Best Choice, Subsidies and Quota, Voluntary Quota, Growth with Protection vs. Free Trade Gains and WTO. Managed Trade, Quantitative Restrictions, Voluntary Export Restrictions and Their Impacts. Trade Diversion and Preferential Arrangements. WTO: Injury, Anti-dumping Duties, Tariff and B. O. P Support. Success and Failure of WTO Agenda. B)International Monetary Economics and Finance Topic 7.Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rate Determination Foreign Exchange Rates (F. E. R): What it represents? Real, Nominal and Effective Rates. Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rate. Efficient F. E. R Market. Dynamic Theory of Interest and Exchange Rate. The Theory of Spot Exchange Rate Determination. Capital Flow and Speculations. Forward Exchange Market, Interest Arbitrage, Interest Parity Theory, Speculators, Hedgers and Traders, Forward Exchange Rate Policy. Topic 8. Purchasing Power Parity, Exchange Rates and Balance of Payments (B. O. P) Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Non-Trade Goods, Balance of Payment Effect. Test of Exchange Rate Instability.Impacts of F. E. R. Rate Instability. B. O. P: Income Absorption Approach to B. O. P. Elasticities of Exports and Imports and Impact on B. O. P. The Marshall- Larner Conditions. Monetary Approach to B. O. P. Monetarist Critique to the Keynesian Closed Economy Model. B. O. P. Effects of Stabilization Policies. Empirical Tests of Monetary Approach to the B. O. P. WTO and B. O. P Support. Adjustment with Short-run capital Flow. Methods dealing with undesired Short-run Capital Flow. Topic 9. Open Economy: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Internal and External Balance. Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Fixed Exchange Rates.Problems of Small Country: Fixed Exchange Rate, Free Floating Exchange Rate, Managed Exchange Rate and Critical Review of The Fiscal – Monetary Mix Models. Fiscal Policy and Temporary Payment Imbalances. Monetary Policy and Permanent Payments Imbalances, A Random Walk Model of Payment Imbalances. Critical Review of the Modern Theory and Adjustment Mechanism. Topic 10. International Inst itution: Trade, Capital and B. O. P. Introduction of International Institutions, Role and Major Activities of IMF. IMF Credit Facilities. Loan Mechanism, Value of SDRs. The Optimum Quantity of Reserves, Optimum Interest Rate. Euro-Dollar, Dollar Exchange and Impacts. Role of IMF in B. O. P Support and Stabilization. Topic 11.International Movements of Factors and Welfare: Impacts / Issues Facts on International Capital Flow: ASEAN Crisis and Role of International Institution and Criticism. Motive for Capital Movement: Return and Risk Diversification. Why disagreement on International Movement of Labour? Welfare Impacts of Labour Movements. Factors of Production and Price Equalization Issues. Losses of National Sovereignty. Can Developing Countries Compete and Gain from Trade: Terms of Trade due to Demand Pattern and its Impacts. What Counts for wage Differential Between Primary Goods Producer and Value Added Goods Producer, Competitiveness Issue. WTO: GATT and Emergency of WTO. Why necessary to Join WTO?WTO: Expected Impacts on Trade, Liberalization and B. O. P; Special Status of Developing Countries and Net Food Importing Countries. Protections under WTO Rules. Are Free Trade Gains more than Restricted Trade? Gains for whom; how much and how long? Centre-Periphery Theory. WTO Rules: Sanitary, Phytosanitary, Dumping, Anti-Dumping etc Rules and Emerging New Issues and Their Impacts. Topic 12. Major Contemporary International Economic Issues: WTO: GATT and Emergency of WTO. Why necessary to Join WTO? WTO: Major Trade Rules and Their Expected Impacts on Trade, B. O. P Deficit. WTO and Fair Trade / Free Trade. Free Trade will it be?Issue of â€Å"Are Free Trade Gains more than Restricted Trade†? Emerging Regional Trading, Blocks, Special Preference and their Impacts. Issues relating to the Contributions of International Financial Institutions and Their Evaluations. Is there need to Reform International Institutions? Monetary Integration and Their Impacts. T erms of Trade Issue. International Debt Problem, Growth and Competitiveness. Issues of Developing Countries: Level of Development, Competitiveness and Trade Stability: World Income Distribution and Free Trade. Basic Readings: 1. Caves Richard, E. , and Jones Ronald W. , World Trade and Payments: An Introduction, Latest Editions.Little, Brown and Company, Boston, Toronto. 2. Chacholiades, Miltiades, International Trade Theory and Policy (Latest Edition). McGraw Hill Book Company, New York, London. 3. Donomick Sal Vatore B. , International Economics (Latest Edition), Prentice Hall. 4. Grubel Herbert C. , International Economics, (Latest Edition) Richard D. Irwin Inc. , Honewood, Illinois. 5. Peter Holinder & Thomas A. , Pugel. , International Economics. 9th Edition 1996. 6. Sodersten B. and Geoffry Read. , (1994). International Economics, MacMillan Press Ltd. 7. The Global Competitiveness, Report 1999, World Economic Forum, Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York. 8.World Bank. Worl d Development Report, 1986. Oxford University Press. Additional Readings: 1. Baldwin Robert L. and Richardson David J. , (1986). International Trade and Finance, Little Brown and Company, Boston, Toronto. 2. Moran Theodore H. , (1985). Multinational Corporations: The Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investment. Lexington Books. Toronto, Massachusetts. 3. Krugman and Obstfeld, International Economics: Theory and Policy, Addison Willey (1998). Paper 2. ECONOMETRICS: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS Topic 1:Introduction Definition and scope of econometrics, Econometric models vs. Statistical models Ingredients of econometric modelingSpecification, estimation, verification or evaluation and forecasting. Topic 2:The Classical Linear Regression Model (a)The Simple Linear Regression Model (SLRM) Estimation of SLRM by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Interpretation of Estimated Coefficients and their Economic Meanings. (b)The Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) Estimation of MLR model by OLS and its assumptions Interpretation of estimated coefficients and their economic meanings, Computation of elasticities and standardized coefficients Using R2 as a measure of ‘Goodness of Fit’ and some roblems with its use. (c)The General Linear Regression Model (GLRM)Estimation of GLRM by OLS through Matrix Approach Var-Cov matrix of estimated coefficients. (d)Evaluating an Estimated Linear Regression Model Testing the significance of individual coefficients. Testing the significance of the model as a whole. Topic : 3 Multicollinearety What is Multicollinearety? Distinction between perfect Multicollinearety and less than perfect Multicollinearety (Multicollinearety problem). Consequences of Multicollinearety problem, methods for detection of Multicollinearety problem. Remedial measures for Multicollinearety problem. Topic: 4 Heteroskedasticity What is Heteroskedasticity and what are its causes?Consequences of Heteroskedasticity for OLS estimation. Methods for detection of He teroskedasticity. Remedial measures for Heteroskedasticity. Topic: 5 Autocorrelation What is Autocorrelation and its Causes? Consequences of Autocorrelation for OLS estimation. Methods for detection of Autocorrelation. Remedial measures for Autocorrelation. Topic 6:Forecasting with a Single Equation Regression Model What is forecasting and what are its various types? Important features of a good forecast. Variance of unconditional forecast error. Variance of conditional forecast error. Measures for evaluating the forecasting power of a model.Topic 7: Errors in Variables, Time as a Variable, Dummy Variables, Grouped Data, Lagged and Distributed-Lag Variables Errors in variables. Time as a variable. Dummy variables. Estimation from grouped data. Exogenous lagged variables. Endogenous lagged variables. Methods of estimation of lagged models. Topic 8: Identification The problems of identification. Implications of the identification state of a model. Formal rules for identification. Iden tifying restrictions. Tests for identifying restrictions. Identification and Multicollinearity. Topic 9:Simultaneous Equations Models Why Simultaneous Equation Models? Various Types of simultaneous equation Models. The identification problem.Checking the identification state of a model or of a particular equation in the model by Order Condition, bogus equation and reduced from approaches. Identification and methods of estimation. Topic 10:Consistent Estimation of Parameters of Simultaneous Equations Models Indirect Least Square Estimation. Two-stage Least Squares Estimation. Instrumental variables method of estimation. Topic 11:Varying Coefficient Models: Causes of Coefficient Variation. Randomly Varying Coefficient Models. Systematically Varying Coefficient Models. Topic 12:Time Series Econometrics ARIMA Models. Comparison of forecasts based on ARIMA and Regression Models. Unit Roots and Co-integration.Dummy Trap and its detection. Suggested Books: 1. Gujrati, D. Basic Econometrics , 3rd Edition, † McGraw Hill, 1993 2. IntrilligatorEconometric Model, Techniques and Applications, N. J. Printice Hall, 1978 . 3. Johnston, J. Econometric Models, McGraw Hill, 1984 4. Koutsoyiannis, A. Theory of Econometrics, McMillan, 1978 5. Maddala, J. S. Econometrics, McGraw Hill, New York, 1978 6. Wonnacot, R. J. Econometrics, John Wiley, New York & Wonnacot, E. 7. Madnani, G. M. KIntroduction to Econometrics Principles and Applications, (Latest Edition) 8.Pindyck &Econometric Models & Economic Forecasts, 3rd RubenfeldEdition, McGraw Hill Inc. 1992. 9. Maddala, J. & Kim Unit Roots, Co-integration and Structural Change, Cambridge University Press, 1998. 10. Griffiths, Judge, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, John Willey and Sons, Latest edition. Research Articles: 1. Abadir (2002) Notation in Econometrics: a proposal for a standard. Econometric Journal, Vol. 5, issue 1, pages 76-96. 2. Abadir and Jan R. Magnum (1993) OLS Bias in a Nonstationary Autogregression, Eco nometric Theory, Vol. 9, issue 1, pages 81-93. 3. Don Andrews (2003). A Bias-Reduced Log-Periodogram Regression Estimator for the Long Run, Memory Parameter, Econometrica, 71, (2), 675-712. 4.Gunnar, Bardsen, (1999), Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modeling wages and prices in the United Kingdom, Empirical Economics, 24, (3), 483-507. 5. Joshua, Angrist, (2001), Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple strategies for Empirical practice. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19, (1), 2-16. 6. Luc, Bauwens, (1994), Estimating End Use Demand: A Bayesian Approach. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 12, (2), 221-31. 7. Manuel, Arellano, (1992), Female Labour Supply and On-the –Job Search: An Empirical Model Estimated Using Complementary Data Sets. Review of Economic Studies, 59, (3), 537-59. 8.Stephen, Roy, Bonal, (1991), Some Tests of specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equation. Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2), 277-97. Paper 3. DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS: THEORY AND POLICY Note: Students are expected to study latest editions of the recommended books. At least two research papers pertaining to each topic must be comprehended. Each topic must be prepared and analyzed critically. Any aspect of the topics may be asked in the examination. The course content provides a guideline. Students must prepare critical review of topics. Part: A Theoretical Foundations and Sector Specific Issues: Topic: 1 Scope and New DevelopmentsDefinitions: Economic Development and Growth, Identification of Development variables. Scope and Significance of Development Economics. Characteristics of LDC’s. Measurement of Economic Development and Growth. Per Capita Income approach, Quality of Life Index / HDI etc. Historical overview of world development and emerging major issues pertaining to Less Developed Countries (LDC’s). Why the whole world is not d eveloped? Topic: 2 Major Theories of Development – Classical and Neo-classical Theories, Adam Smith and Competitive Capitalism, Vicious Circle of Poverty, Stages of Economic Growth, Balanced and Unbalanced Growth, Big Push Theory. Dependency Theory, Structuralist’s View Point.Endogenous Growth Theory: New growth Theory. Income Convergence/ Divergence, New Growth Theory. Market Friendly Approach. Topic: 3 Agriculture and Industry Agriculture vs. Industry: Development Debate. Lewis’ Model of surplus Labor. Rains’ Fei Model and its critical review. Transforming Agriculture, Underemployment problem. Role of Agriculture: Market for Industrial Output, Provision of Input, food, Complementarity, productivity growth. Terms of Trade Issue and Subsidies, etc. and Competitiveness. Land Holdings, Green Revolution and it’s Performance. Need for Industrialization. Industrialization and its financing mechanism. Problem of Sectoral Dualism. Why Green Revolution?The Spread of Green Revolution in Pakistan and its Status / Contributions. Topic: 4 Population, Education and Human Capital Demographic Transition, Human Resources as a source of growth and their contributions. Investment in education and returns. Models of Employment & Unemployment: Time Criterion, Productivity Criterion and New Index etc. , and Employment generation Strategies/Techniques. Part B: International Development Issues and Debates Topic: 5 International Debt, Aid / Assistance Why international borrowing? Two Gap Model, Aid commitments and disbursement. Sources of borrowing. Debt Cycle Theory/Stages. Debt Burden: Debt Servicing, Debt laffer Curve, Debt buy back etc. Latin American Debt Crises, ASEAN Crises, Debt Problem of LDC’s and South Asia, Debt Overhang and threat to growth. Policies to combat debt problem: Forecasting debt and solution for debt burden, saving mobilization/Domestic resource mobilization, Debt rescheduling etc. Debt Modeling and Forecasting Future Implication. Topic: 6 WTO, Liberalization and International Trade Trade vs. Aid. Liberalization of Trade and its impacts/gains etc. , Foreign Exchange Constraints and Balance of Payment deficit. Role of GATT and its Failure. WTO and LDC’s. Trade Instability, Distribution of gains from Trade liberalization. Regional Trade Associations (RTA’s): their role and contributions. Basis for trade and benefits: Gains from Trade: Static and Dynamic Gains.Comparative Advantage, Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness. Trade as an engine of growth. Product Cycle. Determinants of exports growth. Transfer of Technology: Sources & Need. Technology Centered Development and Appropriate technology issue. Topic: 7 Transnational Corporations (TNC’S), FDI and Development Transnational Corporations (TNC’s): Objectives, Role and Contributions, Long term cost of TNC’s. Transfer of Technology: Ways and Means. Global integrated production system: TNC’s and Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Its Determinants/Role. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and TNC’s. Flow of FDI and its contributions.Topic: 8 Poverty and Income Distribution Definitions and Measurement of Poverty/Poverty Line. Poverty concepts/definitions. Absolute Poverty, Relative Poverty, Income approach, Expenditure approach, Basic needs approach, Poverty of Opportunities Index (POPI) and Calorie-based approach etc. Poverty Indicators. Poverty by socio-economic groups. Sources, impacts and policies to combat poverty. Strategies and tools to combat poverty. Growth and Income Inequality in the world. Empirical evidences on poverty. Redistribution with growth. How to combat income inequality. Basic Needs, Social Action Programs and Poverty alleviation. Topic: 9 Environment and DevelopmentModel of Environment and Economic Activity. Market Based Approach and Externalities. Deforestation and Renewable Resources, Measuring environment values. Deforestation and Macroeconomic Environment. Industrialization and its environmental cost, Use of Pesticides and Environmental Impacts. Natural resources degradation. Cost of Pollutions/Environmental degradation. International awareness about environment, production and need for Reforms. Economic thoughts and Environment. International Agencies: Environmental concerns and programs. Urbanization and environmental issues. Sustained development, Ecology and economic progress. Topic: 10 Growth ModelsHarrod-Domer Model, Technical Change and growth Model, Kaldor’s Model of Distribution, Joan Robinson’s Model of capital accumulation, Model of Steady State Growth. Saving-Investment and Golden Rules. Recommended Books: 1. Balasubramanyam V. and Lall, S. (1992, eds), Current Issues in Development Economics. McMillan , London. 2. Chaudhary M. Aslam and Hamid, A. , (1999). Human Resource Development and Management in Pakistan. Ferozsons, Lahore. 3. Chenery H. B. and Srinivasen. Hand Book of Develo pment Economics,* vol. I & II, Amsterdam (1988, eds. ). North Holland. 4. Cypher J. M. and Dietz James L. , (2004), The Process of Economic Development, Routledge.Tayl or Francis Group, London/New York. 5. Ghatak Subarta, (2003), Introduction to Development Economics, Routledge, Taylor and Francis Group, London/New York. 6. Herrick B. and Kindleberger C. , (latest eds. ). Economic Development. McMillan, New York. 7. Hirshman A. O. , (1960). Strategy of Economic Development, Yale University, Press. 8. Jones H. G. , An Introduction to Modern Theories of Economic Growth, (Latest Edition), McGraw Hills. 9. Mahboob-ul-Haq Center for Human Development (MHCHD). Human Development in South Asia, Annual Reports, Islamabad. 10. ————- (1999), A Profile of Poverty In Pakistan, (In Collaboration with UNDP). 11. Meier Gerald M. Leading Issues in Economic Development, (Latest Issue), Oxford University Press. 12. Thirlwall, A. P. , (2003), Growth and Development, With Spe cial Reference to Developing Economies 7th edition, Palgrave Publisher. 13. Todaro M. P. , Economic Development in the third World. Latest Edition, Heinemann, London. 14. UNDP, Human Development Reports , Annual Reports. 15. Van Den Berg H. , (2001), Economic Growth and Development,* McGraw Hills. 16. William, Easterly, Growth without Development, A Case Study of Pakistan, World Bank. 17. World Bank, World Development Reports, Annual reports, 1986, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1998/99, 2000/2001 and 2004. 18. Yotopolous Pan A. and Nugent Jeffery B. Economics of Development, Empirical Investigation (Latest Issue). Harper and Row Publishers, London/New York. Paper 4: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Importance of Research Methodologies. Research techniques in social sciences and their limitations. Theory and basis of research. Empirical and theoretical research. Stages of research process. Identification of problem/issue, data, theory and estimation and related problems. Thinking, Field Re search Designs; the process of field research, Exploratory Research, Casual Inference. Methods of communication in survey. Vision survey and communication techniques. Art of asking questions and getting quality information.Preparation of Research Proposal Questionnaire, Sample Design; the Nature of Sampling, Measurement and Scaling; Measurement, Measurement Scales, the Characteristics of Sound Measurement, the Development of Measurement Tools, Scaling, the Nature of Scaling, Response Methods, Scale Construction. Data Collection Methods, Survey Instruments and Field Procedures; Survey Instrument Designs, the Survey Situations, the Instrument Development Process, Questionnaire Development, Field Procedures, Personal Interviewing, Telephone Interviewing, Interviewing by mail, observations. Data collection, Observation, Experimentation and Simulations; Experimentation and Simulation.Choice of Research Technique, Experimental Research Design, Simulation, Observation, Observation Designs. Use of Secondary Data; the Nature of Secondary Data Sources, the Use of Secondary Data, Types of Secondary Data Sources, Statistical Sources, Data Research Procedures, Evaluating Secondary Data. Vision Survey: Interpretation of Replies. Data Presentation and Analysis: Elements of Analysis, Data Preparation, Special Data Problem, Tabulation, Data Presentation, and Data Analysis. Report Writing; the Questions and analysis of Research Proposal. Organization of Research Paper. How to format and Write country Research Report. Executive summary and abstract of a report.Conclusion and its basis. Evaluation of Research Work. The Research Report, Research Report Format, Writing and editing of research Report. Recommended Books: 1. Birchenhall C. and Grout P. , (latest edition), Mathematics for Modern Economics, Herifaq Publishers, New Delhi. 2. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Holt-Sounders Japan Ltd. Tokyo (Latest edition). 3. Johnson, Glenew Research Methodology for Economists: Philosophy and Practice, McMillan Publishing Co. (Latest edition). 4. Kidder Louise H. , Research Methods in Social Relations. 5. Lambert, P. , (1985) Advanced Mathematics for Economists. Static and Dynamic Optimization, Basil Black Well. 6. Neuman W.Lawrence, (1997) Social Research Methods, Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, Allyn and Bacon; Boston. 7. Sckaran Business Research Methods 8. Uma, Sekarn, (1992), Research Methods for Business. A Skill Building Approach, John Willey & Sons, Inc. 9. Young Pauline V. , (latest edition), Scientific Social Survey and Research, Prentice Hall Inc. 10. Zikmund William, G. , (1994), Business Research Methods, The drydem Press. OPTIONAL PAPERS Paper 5. 1: ADVANCED MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS Topic 1:Complex Number and Circular Functions Imaginary and Complex Numbers. Complex Roots. Circular Functions. Properties of Sine & Cosine functions. Eular Relations.Alternative Representation of Complex Numbers. Topic 2:Integral Calculus Dynamics and Integration. The Na ture of Indefinite Integrals, Basic Rules of Integrations & Rules of Operation. The Substitution Rule and the Rule of Integration by Parts. Definite Integrals. Major Properties of Definite Integral. A Definite Integral as an Area Under a Curve. Improper Integrals. Economic Applications of Integrals – Finding Total Functions from Marginal Functions, Investment & Capital Formation, Present Value of Cash Flow. Present Value of a Perpetual Flow, Domar Growth Model. Topic 3:Differential Equations: Continuous Time: First Order Linear Differential EquationsMeaning and Definition; Homogenous & non-Homogenous Cases. Solution of First Order Linear Differential Equation with Constant Coefficient & Constant Term and its Verification. Economic Application: Dynamics of Market Price. Solution and its Verification of First Order Differential Equation with Variable Coefficient and Variable Term. Exact Differential Equation, its Solution and Verification. Non-linear Differential Equations of t he First Order and First Degree. Bernoulli Equation, Separable Variables. The Qualitative Graphic Approach. Concept of Phase Diagram, types of Time Paths and their Dynamic Stability. Economic Application: Solow Growth Model.Topic: 4 Differential Equations: Higher Order Differential Equations Solution and Verification of Second order Linear Differential Equations with Constant Coefficient and Constant term-Distinct Real Roots, Repeated Real Roots and Complex Root Cases. Dynamic Stability of Equilibrium. Economic Applications. A Market Model with Price Expectations. The Interaction of Inflation and Unemployment. Solution of Higher order Differential Equations with Constant Coefficient and Constant Term. Convergence and the Routh Theorem. Topic 5:Difference Equations; Discrete Time: First Order Difference Equations Solution and its Verification of First Order Difference Equations. The Dynamic Stability of Equilibrium.Economic Applications – The Cobweb Model, A Market Model with Inventory. Nonlinear Difference Equations – The Qualitative-Graphic Approach. Phase Diagrams Types of Time Path. A Market with a Price Ceiling. Topic: 6 Higher Order Difference Equations Solution and Verification of Second-Order Linear Difference Equations with Constant Coefficients and Constant Term-Distinct Real Roots, Repeated Real Roots and Complex Roots cases. The Convergence of the Time Path. Economic Applications, Samuelson Multiplier-Acceleration Interaction Model. Inflation and Unemployment in Discrete Time. Higher Order Linear Difference Equations and their Solutions. Convergence and Schur Theorem Again.The Solution of Simultaneous Differential Equations. Topic 7:Non-Linear Programming The Nature of Non Linear Programming Non-Linearities in Economics. Kuhn Tucker Condition. Interpretation of Kuhn Tucker Condition. Kuhn Tucker Sufficiency Theorem: Concave Programming. Arrow Enthoven Sufficiency Theorem: Quasiconcave Programming. Economic Application-Utility Maximizat ion, Least Cost Combination. Solving a Nonlinear Program via the Kuhn-Tucker Conditions. Recommended Books: 1. Chiang A. C. Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics McGraw Hill (3rd Edition) 1984. 2. Dowling Edward T. Mathematics for Economics Schaum Series, 1981. 3. Glass Colin J.An introduction to Mathematical Methods in Economics McGraw Hill. 4. Haung David, S. , Introduction to the set of Mathematics in Economic Analysis Graphical Approach, Simplex Method, Economic Application of linear Programming N-Y John Wiley and Sons, latest edition. 5. Hoy M. , Livermois J, Rees R, Stengos T. , Mathematic for Economics, 1996. Addison0Wesley Publishers limited. 6. Weber E. Jean, Mathematical Analysis, Business and Economic Application (latest edition), Harper and Row Publishers, New York. 7. Yamene, Taro, Mathematics for Economists, Prentice Hall, latest edition. Additional Readings: 1. Allen R. G. D. , Mathematical Economics, London, Macmillan English Language Book Society. 2.Edey & P eacock, National Income and Social Accounting London, Hutxchinson University Library, 3rd Edition. Paper 5. 2: APPLIED ECONOMICS AND COMPUTER APPLICATION Topic 1:Introduction to Windows 2000 and Ms-Word Operating System, Performance Management, Desktop Management, Printer Management, Internet Explorer, E-mail. MS-Word, using Advanced Formatting Features, Sharing data with Word, Word Macros, Composing Models and Mathematical Equations. Topic 2:PowerPoint and MS-Access (XP) Database Concepts, File Linkages, Data Retrieval, Data Editing / Updating. Data Transferring. Topic 3:SPSS and E-View Menu, Tool Bars, File Linkages, Dialog Boxes. Data Analysis, Analysis of Variance.Simple and Multiple Regression Analysis, Formatting Reports, Creation and Modification of Chart, Line Area and Pie Chart. Output Navigator Printing, Data Editor Printing, Command Syntax Printing. Use of E-view for Model Estimation. Topic 4:Estimation of Production Function Use of Computer, SPSS, E-View to Estimate Prod uction Functions. Cob-Douglas Production Function, Constant Elasticity Production Function etc. Topic 5:Computer Applications: Demand – Supply & Equilibrium Estimation of Demand and Supply using E